Medvedev seeks nuclear safety

Medvedev, standing alongside Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich at a ceremony marking the 25th anniversary of the world’s worst nuclear accident, said the disaster had taught states that they must tell the whole truth to their people.

The world community pledged ¤550m to help build a new containment shell over the stricken reactor at the Chernobyl site to replace a makeshift one that has begun to leak radiation.

About 120,000 people took part in anti-nuclear rallies across Germany in April. There were 80 rallies across Germany, the largest outside the Grohnde nuclear reactor, one of 17 plants in Germany, where 20,000 took part. About 15,000 also took part in rallies outside the reactors at Biblis and  Grafenrheinfeld in the south of the country.

In Romania, scores of protesters gathered near government headquarters in Bucharest. Protesters, some wearing green vests, protective chemical suits and gas masks, want authorities to cancel plans to build new nuclear reactors in the European Union state on the river Danube banks, in Cernavoda.

Stem cell patent ban opposed by scientists

The ECJ’s advocate general has said all patents on embryonic stem cell-related technologies should be banned on moral grounds, but in a letter in the journal Nature and during a briefing in London, leading stem cell scientists said that could spell disaster for drug firms seeking treatments for conditions such as blindness and  spinal chord injuries.

“If the ECJ was to follow this opinion, the reality is that all patents in Europe that relate to human embryonic stem cells will be eliminated,” said Austin Smith of the Centre for Stem Cell Research in Cambridge, one of letter’s 13 signatories.

Two US companies – Advanced Cell Technology and Geron – have recently won regulatory approval for late-stage human trials of therapies using human embryonic stem cells, and many other companies are pursuing aspects of stem cell research in Europe.

These include US drugs giant Pfizer, the Anglo-Swedish firm AstraZeneca, Swiss drugmaker Roche, the French company Cellectis and a small Italian biotech called Avantea.

Ozone hole dominates climate change

The stratospheric ozone layer has thinned over the South Pole over the last half-century. This depletion of ozone has shifted the Southern Hemisphere’s climate so that dry areas in the subtropics now see about ten percent more precipitation in summer than they used to, scientists reported in the journal Science.

Ozone is now widely believed to be the dominant agent of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere, so this actually means that the international agreements regulati lead author, Sarah Kang of Columbia University.

Genes could aid malarial drugs

A team at Harvard University and the  Broad Institute in Boston used advanced gene-hunting technology to search the genetic code of the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum.

They found ten previously undiscovered genes that help the mosquito-borne parasite quickly develop resistance to malaria treatments and confirmed the role of another.

Scientists are increasingly looking to manipulate genes as a way to control the spread of malaria, which affects more than 240 million people every year, and kills around 850,000 annually – many of them children in Africa.Researchers said on Wednesday they have found a way of genetically manipulating large populations of mosquitoes that could eventually dramatically reduce the spread of the deadly disease.

Reducing the toll of malaria is a major challenge because of the parasite’s talent for swiftly developing resistance to multiple drugs.

To understand how they do it, teams at Harvard and Broad analysed the genetic code of 57 parasites from three continents. They also measured the parasites’ responses to 13 antimalarial drugs.

The scientists looked specifically for areas of the genome that were evolving rapidly, searching for variants linked with drug resistance. They found 11 genes.

Tests on one of these – PF10_0355 – showed that adding extra copies of the gene from a resistant parasite to one still sensitive to drugs made the sensitive candidate more drug resistant.

That suggests the gene is playing a role in making the parasite drug-resistant, said Daria Van Tyne, one of the study’s authors.

Robot recognition

It is unsettlingly significant or pathetically kitsch that the first robot ‘scientist’ is called Adam. In either case, Adam has been accredited with discovering the gene in the DNA sequence of yeast bacterium related to its growth and more importantly, beating his human counterparts to the discovery. While this can largely be attributed to the repetitive nature of the task, it is nevertheless a triumph of robotics and a milestone on the path to a genuine artificial intelligence.

AI has always been an edgy science. The West’s hang-up with Judeo-Christian beliefs has been blamed for the apprehension that such technology seeks to play god. Meanwhile, Hollywood can also be held accountable for introducing its own dose of blind cynicism into the debate (films such as The Terminator tend to treat the advent of AI with fear and uncertainty). Yet the Japanese have been far more open minded in embracing the possibility of a robotic future, driven in equal measure by their advanced technological society and Shinto belief system.

Though the prospect of adding subjectivity to an artificial creation’s thinking process remains distant, science is taking significant steps. The key to this reality however lies in learning more about ourselves. Research is currently focusing on creating cybernetic replacements for damaged parts of the human body; from bridging damaged parts of the brain through computer chips to replacing amputated limbs. Results so far have been basic, but none the less successful.

One major problem has been creating technology small enough to match that of the human body, particularly in terms of power supplies. Yet scientists such as Dr Ted Berger of the University of Southern California have already created computer chips that can replicate the role of the hippocampus (the part of the brain responsible for creating short-term memory), while scientists at MIT are at the latter stages of developing a battery the size of a human cell.

While various human body and brain functions have been replicated, the idea of getting them all to work together – especially without an organic base to build upon (a potential minefield for ethics) – remains a major challenge. Still not enough is known about the human brain to be able to replicate its vast functionality, with even our best attempts staggeringly primitive.

Yet this is AI in a conventional sense. Intelligence could develop in other ways. Consider the basic internet search engines. The fact that the same search terms sometime yield different results suggests priority, or choice, by the search algorithm. Even if caused by computer servers acting at slightly different times, the result represents a basic example of one of the fundamental faculties of intelligent life.

Consider the internet in general: a huge, interconnected series of signals passing from one processor to another to convey a piece of sensory information. Is this not also how the human brain works to provide us with the information we need?

Both of these interpretations come from an anthropomorphic view of intelligence. Yet there could be new forms of intelligence. Indeed, signs of basic artificial intelligence could be in existing technology and we might not even notice them, much as we may not recognise signals from space being from other forms of intelligent life.

Putting aside this mindboggling concept however, it’s almost certain that narcissism will deliver AI. Adam is the first of many robots to come who will eventually surpass humans in their achievement (One might also mention Watson, who recently won Jeopardy).

With Moore’s law having proved startlingly accurate thus far, independent AI is certainly likely to occur sooner than we might think.

Curing heartache

For sufferers of heart maladies, the daily reality of survival is a cocktail of drugs, each shepherding a myriad of side effects, and most with decreasing effectiveness the longer the user takes them.

And it’s not cheap. Studies in 2006 indicated that cardiovascular diseases cost the EU around €169bn a year. In the US, the figure is approximately $261bn (€179bn) representing twice the spending on all cancers and over fourteen times what is spent on HIV. Yet as understanding increases about the processes at work in heart disease, new solutions are coming to the foreground that look set to reduce the cost.

In the first instance, a device has been invented to help control severe hypertension in patients for whom drugs are having minimal effect. The Rheos System device functions like a pacemaker. Implanted under the collarbone, it monitors the blood pressure within the carotid arteries. When pressure increases to above 160/80 mmhg, the device induces an electric shock of between four and six volts. This invokes the body’s carotid baroflex whereby the body naturally takes steps to reduce blood pressure.Though only designed for sufferers with resistive hypertension, the device has already proven capable of reducing pressure by 35mmhg,  thereby cutting the required number of blood thinning drugs required by the patient.

In another step away from drug reliance, research led by the University of Leicester has helped develop an injection that could help radically reduce the damage caused by heart attacks and strokes.

Most damage to the heart is caused as body tissue inflames following a heart attack, shutting down blood and oxygen supplies, resulting in tissue death and scarring that can continue for up to 12 hours after the event.

Research led by Professor Wilhelm Schwaeble has identified an enzyme – known as MASP 2 – that triggers the inflammation. His team have now created an injection that activates a natural antibody that counters the effects MASP 2. Administered to the heart following an attack, it significantly improves chances of survival.

One of the most exciting prospects of the injection is that it can be administered anywhere up to 12 hours after an attack or stroke to prevent heart damage, though obviously the sooner the better. The injection is also being tested for application during transplant operations, whereby it is hoped it will reduce organ damage and increase transplant acceptance.

Despite advances, prevention is better than cure and disseminating information remains the key to reducing heart disease and attacks. Discrepancies remain along lines of race, gender and affluence. According to the British Heart Foundation, in the UK people of South Asian descent are 50 percent more likely to suffer from coronary heart disease than those of European descent while those of Afro-Caribbean background are more likely to suffer from hypertension. Poor diet, smoking and sedentary lifestyles also pose contributing factors to heart maladies, yet few people however realise or take action against the risk until it is too late.

With medication still currently the primary method of reducing high blood pressure (a central cause of heart attacks and strokes), it is perhaps time not so much to innovate but to educate regarding heart care if drug consumption is to be significantly reduced.

Still in hot water

The Chernobyl nuclear disaster was a deadly industrial accident caused by human error during a test on the reactor’s cooling system. Safety procedures designed to ensure fuel rods would not overheat were bypassed. A power surge a hundred times the accepted upper level caused the rods to reach temperatures hot enough not only to melt but explode. The reactor’s roof ruptured in the blink of an eye, allowing air to enter the reactor, which causing further explosions. The fire that ensued pumped radioactive material into the air for nine days.

The event in the Ukrainian SSR is said to have become so serious due to its handling by the Soviet government, which attempted to downplay its severity. For three days after the initial explosion in April 1986, Moscow failed to acknowledge the situation and downplayed the extent of the damage to the reactor. Those within 60km of the site were left exposed to exorbitant levels of radiation, while those within 30km were exposed to degrees of radiation that few could survive.

The event however was too serious to be contained within such a small circumference. Following the initial explosion, radiation levels were noticeably higher globally, as radioactive particles sent into the atmosphere were carried by wind and weather systems across mainland Europe. Much of the radiation is thought to have dissipated within days as a result of the short half-life of the material. Nevertheless, checks are in still in place across farms in Europe to monitor radiation levels related to the event.

Most of the deaths relating to the Chernobyl disaster occurred within 100km of the reactor, in areas of Russia and modern day Belarus. Here, heavier radioactive elements, such as Caesium and Strontium, fell and have been absorbed into water and agricultural systems. As a result, food supplies have been contaminated by radioactive materials which have led to sustained consumption by the local population.

This is a far more serious situation; alpha and beta radiation particles have minimal penetration through clothing or the skin, yet once inside the body they can cause serious damage. The Clinical Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology Research in Minsk, found that by the turn of the millennium there had been a 40 percent increase in the instances of cancer since 1986, with the radioactive material still likely to pose a threat for another 20 years.

Chernobyl still costs the Ukraine huge sums in order to prevent further contamination and recently announced plans will see an international fund created to case the site in its own secure, protective tomb at a cost of over $600m.

While Fukushima has similarly endured explosions and fires as a result of its leaking reactors, they have been far less serious and more importantly discussed in a far more open manner. Yet the attention remains so that the world doesn’t stumble into a nuclear disaster that it hasn’t seen coming.

Untapped potential

Large scale public investment by governments has rescued the global economy from a prolonged depression. But public investment has run out of steam. With public debt, at both national and sub-national levels, unsustainably high in many countries and faced with nervous capital markets, governments know they must now reign in deficits. Sustained recovery will thus become dependent on private investment stepping in. Fortunately, companies are awash with cash. Unfortunately, however, they so far seem reluctant to part with it.

Firms have not yet taken up their customary lead role as drivers of global investment growth. Especially multinational firms, major sources of private investment in both their home markets and abroad, are slow to restart the investment engine. GDP growth is back in positive territory worldwide and is on the whole buoyant in emerging markets. World trade is back to its pre-crisis levels, and the income multinationals earn on their foreign investments is close to 2007 highs, but foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are still some 25 percent below their pre-crisis average, and nearly 50 percent below their 2007 peak.

Capital hoard 
So how much cash do firms need? Companies across the developed world are currently sitting on record amounts. US firms are holding an estimated $1.3tn worth of cash, EU and Japanese firms are holding even more, at around $2tn each. The increase of these cash holdings in the last two years has been astronomical. Federal Reserve data indicates that cash holdings by (non-bank) US companies rocketed after a steep drop in 2008 to almost twice the pre-crisis levels in 2010.

The part of this cash held overseas by multinationals in their foreign affiliates is also increasing. According to UNCTAD estimates, foreign affiliates of US firms keep around $400bn, or some 30 percent of the total. Japanese multinationals hold an estimated $950bn overseas, or nearly half the total. The share of retained earnings by foreign affiliates has increased significantly for multinationals originating in almost all mature markets, rising from less than 30 percent of overseas profits in 2001 to nearly 50 percent in 2010 in OECD countries.

Looking at the difference between FDI flows and actual capital expenditures by foreign affiliates (a proxy for the increase in overseas cash reserves) over the last 10 years show, for US multinationals, a spike in 2004, a steep drop in 2005 and an ascent to new heights in 2008 – with estimates for 2009 and 2010 equally high. The 2004 peak and 2005 trough can be explained by the Homeland Investment Act which provided a tax break on repatriated profits in 2005. Anticipating the tax break firms hoarded cash in their overseas affiliates in 2004 and brought back several years worth of retained earnings in 2005, some $360bn. For the last three years, levels have been similar to the anomalous 2004 spike, leading to the conclusion that cash reserve levels in foreign affiliates currently well exceed what is required for normal operations.

The sensitivity of overseas cash reserves to the tax rate on fund repatriation can also be observed in Japan, which also taxes the worldwide profits of its multinational firms. The 2009 tax change on the repatriation of foreign earnings is estimated to bring back an additional $40bn in overseas funds annually.

Cash rich
There are many reasons why firms have more cash in their coffers. Uncertainty in global financial markets and increased risk aversion, scarcity of viable investment opportunities during the crisis and the expectation of better opportunities around the corner. Furthermore, the continuing low cost of capital and consequently reduced pressure to deploy capital or pay dividends, all combined with the strong recovery of corporate profits and a drive to de-leverage, helps to boost firms’ cash reserves.

However, the sensitivity of overseas cash holdings to tax changes, as well as some observed portfolio-investment-like behaviours of FDI flows – such as the anticipation of exchange rate movements, hot-money flows and speculative investments in booming emerging economy real estate markets – seem to suggest that multinationals have some flexibility in managing cash reserves.

The policy implications are significant: there are untapped funds that could be gainfully employed at this critical moment to stimulate the global economy and finance development – or to help assist and re-build earthquake devastated Japan.

For mature market policymakers, and especially for US legislators, it appears that the fiscal tools to stimulate the economy have not yet been fully exhausted, contrary to popular belief. If cash reserves held in multinational firms can be productively employed, and overseas cash repatriated, the boost to the US economy could be significant. Even considering that it is difficult to guarantee that firms actually reinvest the money, as critics of the Homeland Investment Act allege, distribution of the gain to shareholders would still constitute a consumer stimulus.

Such an action by the US would not necessarily constitute a ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policy and the impact on developing countries would not necessarily be negative, for three reasons. First, if the money held by foreign affiliates in their countries is not productively employed, the opportunity cost is limited. Second, the flow of repatriated earnings would alleviate current fears of excessive depreciation of the dollar. Third, the alternative, continued quantitative easing by US authorities would be far more harmful to other countries, especially developing ones.

Future investments
However, it is not just mature market economies that are in need of stimulus. Lower-income countries are in equally dire need of development finance. They are waking up to the fact that foreign firms are not reinvesting all their retained earnings in productive capacity. They will increasingly ask themselves how they can transform stocks of reserves in investment for development, and how they can avoid the harmful side effects that cash floats can bring in their economies.

Clearly, the policy response should be about more than just ‘cash-grabbing’ and tax levers. Ensuring a stable and favorable climate for investment and creating new investment opportunities are equally, if not more, important. There are many options to do this: for example, concluding negotiations on climate change will give firms the certainties they need to build their future productive capacity and will create new low-carbon investment opportunities.

Finally, it is in the interest of policymakers from all countries that direct investment flows are included in discussions on future global economic governance, alongside other financial flows more commonly considered as culprits for global imbalances and exchange rate tensions. More and more policymakers see the overseas performance of their firms as part and parcel of their international competitiveness (and rightly so, as repatriated earnings contribute to GNP and often more than compensate for trade deficits). They can surely be convinced that stimulating the conversion of overseas cash reserves in productive assets through outward investment promotion efforts makes as much sense as incentivising repatriation. But they will want such efforts to be embedded in investment rules that protect their interests while promoting development.

Mandatory food levels enforced

Origin labels, which are already mandatory for beef, could be extended to milk, unprocessed foods and other goods in future, details of the deal seen by Reuters showed.

The rules are unlikely to be finalised before mid-2011 after governments rejected a number of proposals by co-legislators in the European Parliament, forcing a second reading of the plans. One area on which governments and lawmakers in Parliament disagree is nutritional labels on products – a key element in the draft rules designed to fight rising levels of obesity.

In June the Parliament said companies must label the energy, sugar, salt, protein and fat content of foodstuffs on the front of packages as well as the levels of unsaturated fats and fibre. In the deal, governments said including unsaturated fats and fibre in the labels should be voluntary and did not specify that nutritional labels – which would be compulsory within five years – must appear on the front of packs.

Similarly, governments want “guideline daily amount” or GDA labels for salt, fat, sugar and energy content to be voluntary, rather than mandatory as stipulated by the Parliament. Governments did back an exemption from nutritional labelling for alcoholic beverages including wine, beer and spirits, but unlike the Parliament they do want to see nutritional labels on alcopops.

The German centre-right lawmaker leading the Parliament’s debate on the rules, Renate Sommer, said that was a mistake. “I’m a little bit afraid that if you put the same labelling on alcopops as you do on fruit juices, this could be misleading for the consumer, because it’s not so clear anymore which is which,” she said.

All fair play?

Only six months in to 2011, and it’s clear that it is not
the year for the computer games industry. Of the three biggest players –
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo – one is currently mired in a breach of security
data unprecedented in size and scale, while another faces declining sales and a
new product that is not selling as planned. For the supposedly recession proof
industry, there’s suddenly big trouble.

Once a side sector of the wider toys and games industry, it’s
only the naïve who discount the impact of the video games industry on the wider
economy. In 2010, AggreGame estimated that the video game sales and development
industry valued at around $1.89bn. Approximately 500 million games were sold
worldwide, with big name brands such as World of Warcraft and Halo also
bringing millions of players together online. Big games now outsell Hollywood
blockbuster movies upon their release while generating the same level – if not
more – fan hysteria. So when there’s a problem in the industry, it’s more than
just child play.

The recent interception of up to 100 million users’ data –
including worryingly banking information – from Sony’s PlayStation network is a
bitter blow not only for the games giant (who estimate to have lost $2bn
in lost revenue) but for the whole industry. Online gaming has proved a massive
boom industry for all parties involved, from the specialised subscription games
services to internet companies able to sell premium rate internet lines to
ensure that gamers get the fastest experience possible.

That online security has not kept pace with gaming
developments is not surprising – it’s far easier to sell new technology and
game developments than improved security. Yet for Sony to have to be playing
catch-up to ‘amateur’ cyber hackers so publicly (and as news reports suggest,
repeatedly) reminds us all that our precious personal information is rarely
safe online. Will this damage the gaming industry in the long run? Maybe not,
yet the cost of ensuring security is likely to rise and consumers will likely
be the ones paying for it.

This, in part, is the reason why the gaming industry has
done so well. Driven by hype, peer pressure and demand, gaming
fans are always willing to pay heavily for new games and developments. Take the
release of the recent Microsoft Xbox Kinect, a motion sensor that allows gamers
to interact with the screen through movement. This novel add-on costs
approximately half the price of the console, with games costing half as
much again. Therefore, a Kinect
and two games later, and gamers have already spent as much as their initial
outlay on the console. And this bill only escalates as more and more games are
released.

A case of supply and demand. What appears
worrying is that for some companies this dynamic is changing. Nintendo launched
its groundbreaking Wii console in 2006. It was the first mainstream console
to use movement as part of the player interface. Demand was unsurprisingly
immense and it remained a big seller for several years, with over 86
million consoles shipped as of March of this year. Yet with other consoles
matching or bettering its unique selling point, the Wii is struggling. The flow
of new games has turned to a trickle and sales have dropped thanks to news of a
new console in the pipeline.

The problem for Nintendo is where to take it next;
technology has not come far enough to make major advances outside of
graphics, speed and a few online novelties. Worse still, its most recent new
development, the 3DS – a hand-held gaming console with 3D visuals – has failed
to sell as hoped with some users complaining of nausea. With
the global economic downturn having seen R&D budgets slashed across nearly
every industry, it is hard to see how a gaming company could come back from a
bad selling product.

This was arguably the fate of former top dog Sega. Having
dominated the games market for most of the early 90s with its Mega Drive
console, the company fell victim to tough competition from Sony and Nintendo
with the release of its follow-up consoles the Saturn and Dreamcast and an
expensive law suit from one of its games developers. With the former of the two
consoles first released in 1995 and the latter taken out of production in
2001, Sega went from a major console designer to a games designer for other
platforms in just six years – against nothing tougher than hardware competition.

This tough example illustrates the importance of USP and
branding in the gaming world. The Wii has sold incredibly well despite
performing less graphically compared well to its counterparts. Equally, Sony’s horrendous security breach will cost them large sums potentially, yet in the long run may not be quite as damaging as fans continue to flock
to the unique games the company offers through its consoles.

Yet with all the major competitors having had their consoles
on the market for some time with no definitive plans for replacements, its
equally possible a new console could emerge. The evolution of smartphones, and
particularly the iPhone, has posed some challenge to the console industry
already. They’re cheaper, more portable and arguably more prevalent with some
impressive graphics. Were a smartphone to come out that could send game
visuals to a computer or television screen while also being used as a
controller, it could conceivably overthrow the conventional console market.

With such concepts or better maybe not so far away, it’s
clear that developers and manufacturers will have to remain incredibly vigilant
in terms of their designs. Given the events of the year so far, this task will
likely prove all the harder.