No quick fix, powers commit to long haul

The London talks galvanised global support for Yemen and its government recognised the urgent need for economic and political reforms to help fight al Qaeda which risks threatening regional stability, according to a draft conference statement.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown called the meeting after a Yemen-based al Qaeda affiliate said it was behind a failed December 25 bid to blow up a US-bound plane with 300 people aboard.

Have the talks enough momentum to achieve a Yemen solution?
The botched Christmas bomb attack was a wake-up call to the US, its Western and Sunni Arab allies that Yemen’s lawlessness has reached an alarming level that could no longer be ignored in the oil-producing region.

It drove home how al Qaeda could threaten western interests from Yemen, compounding security challenges already posed by lawless Somalia just across the Gulf of Aden.

“This is a step in the right direction but a global solution and broader approach will have to follow. It is a very complicated situation,” London-based Yemen expert Khairallah Khairallah said.

“But it is the first time that all these countries are really concerned about Yemen, that it could turn into another Afghanistan or Somalia,” he said, adding: “They cannot face a state failure that can lead to worsening instability in the region and beyond.”

What differentiates this new approach to radicalism?
The meeting underlined a broader approach to tackling radicalisation in Yemen by targeting reforms, infrastructure, corruption, building institutions and most importantly addressing poverty, a breeding ground for militancy.

“The meeting is only a foundation and a starting point for all the major powers to work together but it is quite an important step really,” London-based Yemen expert Henry Thompson told reporters.

“This meeting has shown a greater level of international involvement, a much greater level of engagement from Yemen’s immediate neighbours on how to provide aid and how to foresee the implementation of this aid,” Thompson said.

What is the timeframe for fighting radicalism in Yemen?
Nobody expects a quick fix in a country beset by a Shi’ite Muslim insurgency in the north, separatism in the south, growing al Qaeda militancy, a weak state, corruption and a dire economy with 42 percent of Yemen’s 23 million people living on $2 a day.

Donors say it would take a while to gear up and provide assistance mainly because they would need to set up the mechanisms to oversee the distribution of funds.

One clear outcome of the meeting is that donors all agree that just pumping in more unregulated money or providing more military assistance as they did in the past was not enough. Any more aid will be closely scrutinised and conditioned with the Yemeni government enacting reforms.

“It’s more about trying to show international support, create unity, get a common sense of what is needed and what people’s capacity to contribute is, and then build a game plan from there,” said one US official, who declined to be named.

“Yemen is not a failed state but it’s an incredibly fragile state,” British Foreign Office Minister Ivan Lewis said.

“We want to get in there early to offer assistance and to prevent Yemen becoming a failed state,” he said.