The vital edge

England cricket captain Andrew Strauss is a recent convert to the power of positive thinking, praising the controversial self-help book “The Secret” after his spell in the international wilderness.

“The theory is what you think about happens,” said Strauss in his own book “Testing Times”. “If you think positive thoughts, then those thoughts will come about.”

“The Secret” by Australian writer Rhonda Byrne, which started life as a film, has been praised as a life-changing text and criticised as pretentious psychobabble. Whatever the verdict, the lessons Strauss drew in 2008 – positive thoughts, a winning frame of mind, visualising success – are certainly not new.

Twenty-five years earlier, the same principles resurrected the life and career of New Zealand’s greatest cricketer Richard Hadlee. At the end of an exhausting year on and off the field, Hadlee was close to a physical and mental breakdown.

“It may sound a little melodramatic, but at this stage I was preoccupied with the thought of death,” he said. “I was convinced I had heart trouble which in turn made me worse.”

Motivation expert Grahame Felton, who ran a three-hour course for the Canterbury team, transformed Hadlee’s life.

Felton talked about visualisation, control and belief, explained that fear was negative and emphasised the importance of setting targets. “It’s not easy to recapture the mood of that session,” Hadlee recalled. “It was intense. Grahame’s message came across to me so forcibly it was like suddenly seeing the light.”

There are, of course, logical difficulties with all these positive thoughts, described in “The Secret” as the “law of attraction”. Strauss was asked by a sceptical interviewer where the balance of power lay when the opposing bowler pounded in with his mind also packed with positive intent.

“I suppose the law of attraction says that if the bowler believes in himself more than you believe in yourself, then he will come out on top,” Strauss conceded.

“But I have always believed, and I suppose you have got to believe this as a batsman, that if I do everything right, then no bowler will get me out. Ever. In other words, the law of attraction is more on my side than his.”

Statistics are on Strauss’s side. He has had uninterrupted success as a batsman since his return to the England side and led his country to an Ashes win over Australia.

The year also marked the return of Jonny Wilkinson to the England rugby side. Wilkinson’s battles against a seemingly endless series of injuries since he drop-kicked the winning goal in the 2003 World Cup final are well documented. So, too, are his public agonisings over the obsessive search for perfection which has dominated his life.

“I was born a perfectionist,” Wilkinson said in his book “Tackling Life”. “For as long as I can remember I have fought for an ideal world and my own flawless image within it.

“I have left these beliefs firmly behind. Searching for perfect, lasting results in a world of forever evolving and unforeseeable events had been a very expensive and unforgiving vocation at times.”

Wilkinson, 30, has sought endlessly to find the serenity which has eluded him for most of his sporting career. Last year he embraced quantum physics and Buddhism.

“I do not like religious labels but there is a connection between quantum physics and Buddhism, which I was also getting into,” he said. “Failing at something is one thing but Buddhism tells us that it is up to us how we interpret that failure.”
London-based sports psychologist Victor Thompson, who specialises in anxiety, stress and confidence, said the further athletes advanced in their sports, the more important positive thinking became. “You are more likely to get more success because you expect it,” he told Reuters in a telephone interview.

“It’s not necessarily that it’s given you any extra powers, it’s just sort of switching on the bits of you that are more active and positive and doing things in a more helpful way than being more fearful, restrictive, cautious and negative.

“It’s nothing particularly new. It’s just that some people get interested, new books come out and they try to practise some of the principles.

“At higher levels your mental preparation, your mental focus while you’re performing and your recovery after a bad event is all the more important. The higher you go, the intensity, the difficulty of the challenge increases quite a lot, especially if you are doing it for money, for sponsorship. There’s a lot more resting on it when you are at a higher level. It’s how you approach it, the idea to win is understandable but there is only one winner. You have to be realistic and do your best.”

A green imperative

Throughout the world there are people and companies coming up with ideas that will help solve the problems associated with climate change. There is no shortage of entrepreneurs, engineers, scientists and designers with the flair, imagination – and common sense – to get the job done.

There is, too, broad political agreement on the subject although the arguments will continue about which particular road to take and which countries should take the lead. And make no mistake; political will is vital in the battle against climate change because binding agreed reductions in CO2 emissions are at the heart of the strategy.

In the end though, like many things in life, it all comes down to money. How do we pay and who pays and how do we value our efforts?

First we must admit that we have failed properly to value many of the things that count most – a stable climate, thriving ecosystems, good soil quality and clean water, for example. The world is only just beginning to realise that a tree is worth more alive than dead and are working out the mechanism to make that a reality. And we continue to fine-tune the mechanism that will value carbon, or the lack of it, in such a way that it will encourage investment in the low-carbon economy.

The realisation, ahead of time, that the transition to the low-carbon economy is an economic opportunity as well as an environmental imperative is what led to the setting up of Climate Change Capital. It is, as its name implies, an investment manager and advisor specialising in the opportunities created by the low carbon economy and aims to make the world’s environment cleaner while delivering attractive financial returns.

The areas on which the company concentrates, through its funds and teams, are carbon finance, private equity, property and energy infrastructure as well as advising other business. And far-sighted investors have realised the value to be gained from this investment in the future. After all, a pension fund has a duty to look ahead and the enlightened ones are realising that putting money into the equivalent of a gas guzzler is not the way forward.

But the twin drivers of climate change and energy demand means that huge sums of money are needed for a complete overhaul of how we produce, deliver and consume energy worldwide with the International Energy Agency estimating that the cost of creating a clean energy infrastructure will be anything up to $45trn. The building of a single carbon capture and storage power station in the UK will cost around £1bn.

So how do you encourage those investors who have not yet recognised the value in going green to do so? One answer that Climate Change Capital’s vice-chairman James Cameron has come up with, working alongside the environmental advisor Tom Burke is modelled on the war bond philosophy. Cameron believes that a series of targeted bonds, with their proceeds ring-fenced for investment in tangible green infrastructure, could capture investors’ attention whether they be individuals or institutions such as pension funds looking, as they must, for financial return over many years.

Cameron says: “The bonds could be fixed or index linked, offering low but stable rates of return over a long period of time, matching that of the assets into which the funds would be flowing. That is to say we would build things to last. They would have the backing of government and the expected cash flows from the projects themselves. These climate bonds would be a sensible way to finance the needed long∞term investment in tangible assets that society should have to improve the quality of our lives. I sense that there is now a will for people to put their money to productive use.”

Away from the really big picture investments are being put to work. Climate Change Capital’s clean tech private equity fund has already invested in a German solar module manufacturer, a UK developer of biogas plants, an Italian developer of solar farms, a smart metering business and an energy efficiency advice company with many more opportunities in the pipeline.
The company’s carbon finance team currently manages 750m euros focused on the carbon and clean energy markets – the largest private sector carbon fund in the world.

The property team are buying commercial property and then, with the cooperation of the tenants, retro-fitting the buildings to make them more energy-efficient which cuts emissions and costs to the benefit of all.

Another team manages the Ventus Funds, specialist venture capital trust funds which target the UK renewable energy sector, including onshore wind-power, landfill gas, hydroelectric and biomass.

And understanding how the low carbon economy works – and how the myriad regulations are interpreted – has helped Climate Change Capital and its clients. Vattenfall used the advisory team to help guide them through the purchase of three major windfarm deals in the UK.

Since every decision taken by every company now has to have climate change at its core, it is quite clear that companies like Climate Change Capital are in the right place at the right time. Says Cameron: “With strong leadership from governments, thoughtful leadership from business and the participation of the financial markets, we can help create wealth worth having.”

Further information: www.climatechangecapital.com

Swiss precision

Since its inception in 1971, the World Economic Forum has met annually in Switzerland with the aim of presenting international political leaders, select intellectuals and journalists the opportunity of discussing the most pressing issues facing the world, including global health issues and the environment.

It is the Forum’s key belief that improving the state of the world requires catalysing global co-operation to address pressing challenges and future risks. In turn, global co-operation requires stakeholders from business, government, the media, science, religion, the arts and civil society to collaborate as a community. To this end, for the last four decades the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting has convened at the start of the year with the aim of engaging world leaders from all walks of life to shape the global agenda.

Key concernsi) Climate change
A World Economic Forum task
force has presented world leaders gathered in New York with proposals
to accelerate private sector investment and innovation in the fight against climate change. Eighty business
leaders and over 40 environmental and scientific experts outlined a plan for stimulating a ‘clean revolution’ in the private sector within the next few years even as governments continue negotiations on a climate policy framework in the UN.

ii) Food and agriculture
In the past year, food security and economic crises have highlighted both the urgent need and the potential for developing sustainable agri-food systems. Over one billion people, or one out of six globally, do not have access to adequate food and nutrition today. By 2050, the global population will grow to a projected 9.2 billion people, and demand for agricultural products is expected to double.

The World Economic Forum’s Consumer Industries Community is championing an initiative through multi∞stakeholder engagement in developing a shared agenda for action to meet food security, economic development and environmental sustainability goals through agriculture. The new vision for agriculture initiative engages high∞level leaders of industry, government and international institutions and civil society – with support from leading experts – to define joint priorities, recommendations and opportunities for collaboration.

iii) Global health
The Global Health Initiative (GHI) was launched in 2002 by the World Economic Forum and its partners, to improve global health through three key activities: advocacy, dialogue and partnerships. Its focus has been on Africa, India and China and on communicable diseases (HIV/AIDS, TB and Malaria) as well as on strengthening health systems.

iv) Education
The primary objective of the GEI is to raise awareness and support the implementation of relevant, sustainable and scalable national education sector plans on a global level through the increased engagement of the private sector. Through its unprecedented partnerships with UNESCO and Education For All fast track initiative, and the continuous commitment and support of the partners and members of the World Economic Forum, the GEI aims to scale education partnerships globally. In its six years of existence, the GEI has impacted over 1.8 million students and teachers and mobilised over $100m in resource support in Jordan, India, Egypt, the Palestinian territories and Rwanda.

During the past year, the initiative continued supporting the country-level work in Rajasthan, and Egypt, restarted the multi-stakeholder collaboration efforts in the Palestinian territories and launched the Global Education Alliance model with a pilot in Rwanda.

v) Humanitarian relief
The frequency and impact of natural disasters and conflict are increasing worldwide, causing economic losses of over $200bn and over 180,000 deaths in 2005 alone. The result is the need for an unprecedented level of life-saving humanitarian relief. While the private sector has been increasingly generous, corporate response to humanitarian emergencies generally has been reactive, limiting its overall effectiveness and efficiency.

The Humanitarian Relief Initiative aims to increase the global impact of private sector engagement in humanitarian relief. The HRI develops public-private partnerships that match the core competencies of the private sector with the priority needs of the global humanitarian community in advance of humanitarian crises.

vi) International Monetary
Convention project
The wave of financial crises in the last decade has generated a consensus that the international financial system needs to be reformed. But there remain profound disagreements among policy makers and the private sector concerning how far and deep the reforms should go.

To capitalise on this opportunity for progress, the World Economic Forum and the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, in co-operation with selected finance ministries and central banks of G20 countries, are organising a two year series of public-private roundtables on the future of the international monetary system. This project seeks to provide input into the deliberations of policy-makers by convening them for off-the-record sessions with some of the world’s leading private sector and academic authorities.

Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild
The Annual Meeting 2009 theme was “Shaping the post-crisis world”. The intent was to absorb the early lessons from the financial crisis and to understand how risks interconnect, to encourage longer-term thinking and to consider the unintended consequences of various calls for action. The learning and transformation will continue into 2010 along with increasing expectations for positive change. In response to today’s global priorities, the theme for 2010 is a call to action, namely: Improve the state of the world: Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild. Driving the rethink at the 40th annual meeting will be the Network of Global Agenda Councils, comprised of over 1,000 experts active in over 70 councils, created to advance solutions to the most critical challenges facing the world today.

The impetus behind the Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild agenda is clear. The global credit crisis and ensuing recession, having raised serious questions about the future of the global economy, have at the same time provided insights into economic interdependencies, governance gaps and systemic risks that go hand in hand with globalisation. These revelations in turn compel the Forum to Rethink business models, financial innovation and risk management.

Rethinking also triggers attempts at Redesign. National legislatures, supervisory authorities and international organisations are now redesigning institutions, policies and regulations with the aim of closing governance gaps, preventing systemic failures and restoring growth. However, these efforts need common vision, collaborative innovation and public-private partnerships for their long-term success. The success drivers are themselves predicated on the individuals and institutions empowered to take action having the trust of stakeholder communities.

Decision-makers, therefore, must Rebuild trust, not only to establish the legitimacy of their redesign but also to instil confidence in their future success. Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild are invariably complex, as values, norms and incentives change and, in turn, reshape stakeholder communities, social networks, governance structures and industry models worldwide.

In addition the pressure to Rethink, Redesign and Rebuild is increasing in line with the increasing concern over the current state of the world. The fiscal and monetary prescriptions to ease the pain of global economic shocks are now fuelling anxieties about the creation of new economic bubbles.

Furthermore, the demographic, behavioural and technological changes linked to the collapse in global demand are challenging basic assumptions about the nascent recovery. Major industries are still contending with cyclical and structural threats to their business models. In addition to all this, weaknesses of governance systems, exposed by the financial crisis, are mostly unchanged with respect to looming global risks such as climate change, nuclear proliferation and pandemic.

Redesign discussions at the Forum will aim to leverage the ongoing work of the Forum’s Global Redesign Initiative, a multi-stakeholder dialogue focusing on adapting structures and systems of international cooperation to the challenges of the 21st century.
Thematic Pillars of the Forum
The 2010 Forum will focus
on six key objectives:
1. Strengthening economies
2. Mitigating global risks
3. Ensuring sustainability
4. Enhancing security
5. Creating a values framework
6. Building effective institutions

Participants and stakeholders
Of the 2500 participants at the Forum, more than half come from the business sector, with over 900 chief executives from the Forum’s own strategic, industrial, and regional partners and global growth company partners. Together, they represent the world’s leading global corporations in the following sectors: basic industries, consumer, financial institutions, IT, electronics, telecoms, mobility, energy, health, media, and professional services.

Non-business participants include:
• Government representatives of the world’s top 25 economies and fast-growing small countries, including heads of state and government, ministers of finance and economy, and ministers of foreign affairs as well as governors and mayors of the world’s top regions and cities;
• Civil society leaders from international NGOs, trade union leaders, religious and faith community leaders, cultural and sports leaders;
• Thought leaders related to the foremost challenges on the global agenda, heads of the Forum’s Global Agenda Councils;
• Academics; presidents of the world’s top universities, leaders of the world’s top think tanks and experts related to particular issues in the programme;
• Media; publishers, editors-in-chief, columnists and economic editors.

Other Stakeholders Include:
• Young global leaders; from the Forum’s Community of Young Global Leaders, representing the voice of the future;
• CEOs of companies whose technologies are changing business models represented by the Forum’s Community of Technology Pioneers;
• Trade Union leaders;
• The reporting press.

Chairmen of the WEF:

1. Josef Ackermann
Ackermann has been a board member of Deutsche since 1996 and Chairman of the Executive Committee since 2002. He is a member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum.

2. Azim H Premji
Premji is Chairman of Wipro, one of the largest software companies in India. Premji has been recognised by Business Week as one of the Greatest Entrepreneurs of All Time for his vision and leadership that has been responsible for Wipro emerging as one of the world’s fastest growing companies.

3. Peter Sands
Peter Alexander Sands has been Chief Executive of Standard Chartered plc. Standard Chartered is a well-recognised brand in markets such as Asia, Africa and the Middle East, and despite its low profile in Europe, is still the fourth-biggest bank in Britain by value.

4. Eric Schmidt
Schmidt became Chairman of the Board of Google in March 2001 and became the company’s CEO less than six months later. At Google, Schmidt shares responsibility for Google’s daily operations with founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin.

5. Ronald A Williams
Williams is the Chairman and CEO of US-based health insurance group, Aetna Corporation. In 2005 he was named one of the Black Enterprise’s 75 Most Powerful African Americans.

6. Patricia A Woertz
Woertz is CEO of Illinois-based food and industrial conglomerate Archer Daniels Midland. In 2009, with a rank of 93, Woertz was the top-ranking woman on the Fortune 500s list of top CEOs.

Path between the seas

Defying the world economic downturn, Panama is spending $5.25bn in the first major expansion of its canal since it was opened in 1914.

It is a monumental undertaking that promises to shake up global trade routes, making it easier and cheaper to transport Asian goods to the eastern United States and giving China better access to Latin American oil and other commodities.

“The whole Panama Canal expansion will have a significant impact on the way business is done from the Far East into the Caribbean and into the US itself,” said Jay Brickman, a vice president at Crowley Maritime Corp, whose container shipping division services the Caribbean and eastern United States. “It changes the dynamics and it changes the economy.”
The canal, long dreamed of by Spanish colonial rulers as a 50-mile link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and finally built by the United States, risked obsolescence because many new cargo ships are too big to traverse it.

Widening the waterway will mean it can handle a huge new breed of container vessels known as post-Panamax ships. They can carry up to 12,600 cargo containers, almost three times the current number.

It will also be a boost for trade from Asia to the central and eastern United States, with the port of Houston likely to see a big increase in traffic.

At the site of the Pacific entrance locks just west of Panama City, excavators with buckets big enough to hold a large car dump rock and dirt into massive yellow trucks with wheels twice as tall as an average person.

Some 152 million cubic metres (5.37 billion cubic feet) of earth and rocks will be chiseled, blasted and dredged for the expansion that includes new locks at both ends of the canal, equivalent to three quarters of the material excavated during the original project.

“It’s got to be the highest profile construction contract, if not in the world, certainly in this hemisphere,” said Joe Reeder, who was chairman of the canal in the 1990s, before Washington handed over control to Panama in 1999.

The most lucrative contract, worth about $3bn, was won by a consortium led by Spain’s Sacyr Vallehermoso and Italy’s Impreglio.

For the whole world
Panamanians are excited about the project, after many skeptics doubted Panama would administer the waterway well.

“The canal is not just for Panama; it’s for the whole world, we’re very proud of that,” said Santiago Coronel, 50, as he rang a bell on his ice cream cart in a leafy park surrounded by skyscrapers on Panama City Bay. “The canal is at the heart of the world. It is the best route between the two oceans.”

When finished in 2014, the larger shipping lane will allow through tankers capable of carrying one million barrels of oil, liquefied natural gas carriers and so∞called Capesize bulk cargo vessels that transport coal, metals and other commodities, slashing weeks off transit times and shifting global trade patterns.

“The expanded canal gives us a lot of options we don’t have today,” said Peter Gyde, president of A.P. Moller-Maersk Group’s Caribbean Sea Cluster at Maersk Line, which moves containers by rail across Panama because much of its shipping fleet outgrew the canal years ago.

Energy-hungry Asian countries will find it cheaper to buy oil from traditional US suppliers such as Venezuela as shipping costs come down and the amount of crude stored in the Caribbean will likely increase as improved logistics allow traders to take advantage of more arbitrage opportunities.

Failed French attempt
Crossing the isthmus by boat was a dream from the early years of the Spanish conquest of the Americas but it wasn’t until 1881 that a French team led by Ferdinand de Lesseps, the famed builder of the Suez Canal, launched an ill-fated attempt to cut a sea-level canal through Panama.

The effort was a failure and an estimated 22,000 lives were lost to malaria, yellow fever and accidents.

The United States finished the project 33 years and another 5,600 lives later, helped by improved excavation technology and the discovery that malaria and yellow fever are transmitted by mosquitoes.

The completed canal cemented US hegemony in the Americas and forever altered global trade.
“The creation of a water passage across Panama was one of the supreme human achievements of all time,” wrote US historian David McCullough in his 1977 book, “The Path Between the Seas.”

While the canal expansion will boost trade, shipping companies are concerned that it could be financed
by increasing tolls, which are already seen as high.

“The one thing that concerns the users of the canal today is that the canal has gotten excessively expensive in the last few years,” said Maersk’s Gyde.

He said at least one shipper recently saved money by rerouting ships returning to Asia around South America, a trip that adds as much as 8,000 miles, in part because of the high tolls. “That’s how extreme the carriers are willing to look at this.”

Necessity is the mother of invention

It is widely acknowledged that there will be a continued and long-term growth in demand for energy. By 2050 it is predicted that there will be one billion – or double the current number – of cars on the road. This figure alone demonstrates the scale of the energy challenge facing the world.

To meet such demand – as well as to address the challenges of climate change – we will need energy from multiple sources: biofuels, gas, hydrogen, diesel, solar, nuclear and oil. Indeed, it is true that we are at the start of a fundamental shift in our energy system whereby we become increasingly powered by alternative energies and cleaner fossil fuel. It is also true that it is becoming increasingly difficult to access ‘easy’ oil: North Sea production has been in decline since 1999. Yet sourcing new supplies of oil and gas has a crucial role to play in both enabling the world to meet rising demand but also in securing a successful transition into a world which is less fossil fuel dependent.

Innovative technology
Pressure on the oil and gas industry to push the boundaries of technological advancement to locate and source new supplies has therefore never been greater. Recent finds of new supplies all share one of two common traits: they are in more remote and harder-to-reach places than ever before or subsurface conditions are too formidable to enable the resources to be extracted economically at today’s prices. Companies are attempting to drill in deeper water than previously thought possible and corporate scientists are tasked with devising and deploying increasingly sophisticated and innovative technology to make supplies accessible.

As the search for oil and gas takes the industry into new locations, offshore production facilities are now being developed in what specialists call the ultra-deepwater. Such extreme engineering can be found off the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, where Shell is using advanced technology to access previously unreachable oil and gas. 320km from the Texas coastline, the 45,000 ton Perdido floating oil rig can be found sitting alone on the ocean’s surface, attached to the sea floor by nine mooring lines that stretch for 3,000m. When the Perdido platform starts producing oil and gas – or as industry engineers would say, goes on-stream in early 2010, it will tap into three oil fields and will be the deepest offshore drilling and production facility on the planet.  

Perdido is expected to produce around 100,000 barrels of oil and 200,000 cubic ft of gas per day. It will operate in water which is about 2,380m deep and tap into oil and gas reservoirs that lie a further 2,380m beneath the seabed. It was only as recently as 1996 that the industry was able to operate in depths of between 610m and 914m of water. The size of the structure, the fact that the area is prone to devastating hurricanes, the depth of the water and even the pressure within the oil and gas reservoirs themselves have required cutting∞edge technology to make accessing the hydrocarbons possible.

Engineering feats
Assembly of the rig itself was the first challenge facing the engineers working on the project. The Perdido oil rig was floated to its remote ocean location. The vast assembly operation first involved flipping upright in the water the cylindrical spar that provides the rig’s buoyancy and then, seven months later, using a floating crane to lift the 10,000 ton upper deck into place.

A 50,000 ton, 170m long spar – or in layman’s terms, a giant floating cylinder – was then put in place and sits below the ocean’s surface. The spar had to be towed 13,200km from Finland via Texas, where it was fitted for offshore installation, before continuing its journey to its permanent location in the Gulf of Mexico. Here it was secured to the seafloor by the nine chain and polyester mooring lines, spanning an area of the seafloor roughly the size of downtown Houston. By adjusting the tension on the mooring lines, the spar can move around an area of water equivalent to the size of a football pitch and position itself directly above any of the site’s 22 individual wells from which the oil and gas is sourced beneath the facility. The ability to move the spar is critical as it also allows the platform to locate itself in the safest possible location during potentially damaging storm conditions.

Subsea separation
Once in position, the next technological hurdle to overcome was actually extracting the oil and gas from the reservoir, a task made more difficult due to the fact that the pressure within the oil and gas in the reservoir is low. To physically move the hydrocarbons to the surface required (or ‘requires’) the development of a subsea boosting system to supplement the low pressure and pump the oil and gas to the surface.  At the same time, the system employed also undertakes an initial processing of the resources on the seabed itself – something novel to the industry. This process separates out the wanted oil and gas from the unwanted water and other elements that are produced from each well meaning the efforts of the boosting system are not wasted. The oil and gas from the site’s 35 wells is sent to a sump 107m below the sea’s surface where another pump then sends it to the surface.

Robots on the seafloor
The final challenge lay in actually transporting the oil and gas back to land. To enable the oil and gas to be transported by pipelines back to the mainland, Shell deployed the groundbreaking technology of subsea robotics. These remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) – which are controlled by engineers at the surface – were able to carry out complex ‘manual’ tasks, such as securing nuts and bolts and using saws to cut sections from pipes. At Perdido, the ROVs were used to install materials that enabled the structure to connect to a pipeline 123km away at a depth of over 1,372m – from which the oil and gas was moved to dry ground.

Perdido is the deepest oil drilling and production platform in the world and boasts the deepest subsea well in the world. To meet the world’s energy demands, further world records will inevitably have to be broken in the years to come. Technological advance and innovation has always been an important pillar of a successful economy, but this sentiment rings truer now in the oil and gas industry than it ever has before. Oil and gas remain a vital part of the world’s energy mix, and only by pushing the boundaries of scientific innovation will a secure energy future be realised.

A major player

NBG has a strong capital base, with own funds amounting to about ¤9.1bn. At the same time it ranks among the top European banks in terms of adequacy and quality of capital, liquidity and operating profit. With total assets of EUR112.2bn NBG has forged itself into a front-line banking group, and is a key representative of the Greek economy on the international level.

In addition, with a deposit base of EUR70bn it enjoys a strong competitive edge that sustains financing to businesses and households alike, as credit continues to expand in Greece. Accordingly, the Group’s aggregate loan book stood at ¤69.8bn in Q3 of 2009.

The Group has a dynamic presence in 11 countries on two continents, where it runs eight banks and 64 financial and other services providers. Foreseeing at an early stage the substantial growth potential in the region of Southeast Europe and the East Mediterranean, and applying a coordinated strategy to penetrate the markets of the wider region, it has invested in expanding and consolidating its footprint via strategically significant companies.  

In the past few years, in the area of  Southeast Europe and the East Mediterranean the NBG Group has evolved into the foremost Greek player, active in nine countries with a total population of some 125 million, via more than 1,800 banking units – making up a network of branches and subsidiary banks operating in Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, Cyprus and Egypt.

Notably, NBG was also the first Greek financial institution to be listed on the world’s largest capital market, the New York Stock Exchange.

Continually generating jobs
The Group’s workforce numbers some 37,000 while it is continuously generating new jobs. Likewise, it systematically invests in the broadening, selection, training, evaluation and development of its staff, as well as the ongoing upgrade of working conditions within the organisation. It considers its human resources to be its most important asset in its drive for growth. Recall that NBG is the biggest employer in the private sector in the region.

Vision
NBG’s vision is to maintain its vanguard position in the countries where it operates – working consistently and reliably for the benefit of its customers, delivering value to shareholders, being the preferred employer for   workers, and functioning in a socially responsible way within the community.

A reliable shipping partner
National Bank of Greece has been active in supporting shipping since the early 20th century, when it opened a branch in London, to a large extent for this specific purpose.

During the 1960s, first among Greek banks, it became more active in shipping finance and since the mid-90s it established itself at the forefront of Greek banking system and gradually became a major international player in Greek shipping finance.

The bank is providing mortgage financing as its main shipping finance service, but given its experience, size and geographical dispersion is essentially a gate through which its clients gain access to a multitude of banking services, ranging from operations, carried out by experienced and specialised personnel, all the way to asset management and investment banking.

NBG’s total shipping portfolio is approximately $3.5bn large and has performed remarkably well since the mid 90s. Reflecting to a large extent the synthesis of Greek shipping, it is mainly oriented towards bulk shipping (both dry and wet), with a small presence in coastal shipping and a minor one in containerships.

Strategic option
Given the current challenging world economy setting, which leaves few industries unaffected, NBG’s strong capital and liquidity base allows it not only to dynamically manage existing risks and actively support its clients in handling present business conditions, but also to allow them to take advantage of investment opportunities selectively arising.

Given the importance of the shipping industry for Greece, strong presence in Greek shipping finance is a strategic option for NBG, one that so far has delivered positive results for both the bank and its clients.

Awards
In recognition of NBG’s efforts to enhance its ability to meet effectively the needs of its customers and shareholders, apply successful growth strategies, and commit itself to a social role within the community at large a number of important awards and distinctions have been awarded to it, including:

“Shipping Financier of the Year”: As part of “6th Annual Lloyd’s List Greek Shipping Awards 2009”.

“Best Shipping Financier Of The Year, 2010”: According to an assessment by The New Economy magazine.

“Best Bank in Greece 2009”: As part of Euromoney’s “Awards for Excellence 2009”.

“Bank of the Year 2009 in Greece’: As part of The Banker’s “Bank of the Year Awards 2009”.

“Global Dow – Top 150”: In November 2008, the NBG
share was included in the Global Dow – Top 150. This
index is comprised of the most innovative, vibrant and influential corporations from around the world. 

“Top 500 Banking Brands – Top 100 Best Banking Brands”: According to an assessment by The Banker, NBG ranks 82nd among the top 100 banks around the world (2008), and is the only Greek name on the list.

“Best Private Banking in Greece 2008”: NBG’s Private Banking arm was awarded the distinction of Best Private Banking in Greece 2008 by the industry journal Euromoney.

“Best Bank for Regulatory Capital”: According to the industry journal The Banker (published by the FTJ),
NBG is the Best Bank for Regulatory Capital in Greece
and 99th in the world (2008).

Just say sorry

Keeping customers happy has always been an important part of business.

But in the new economy, where disgruntled customers can trash a company’s reputation with a few online comments, that’s even truer.

It’s a difficult problem, but the solution could be remarkably simple, according to researchers at Nottingham University: just say sorry. A sincere apology is even more effective than an offer of financial compensation, the study found.

In fact, people are more than twice as likely to forgive a company that says sorry than one that offers them cash instead, according to academics from the Nottingham School of Economics’ Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics.
    
The researchers set out to find whether customers who have been let down continue to do business after being offered an apology.

They worked with a firm responsible for around 10,000 sales a month on eBay, controlling its reaction to neutral or negative feedback.

Some customers were offered an apology in return for withdrawing their comments, while others were offered compensation of either £2.50 or £5.

The simple apology blamed the manufacturer for a delay in delivery, adding: “We are very sorry and want to apologise for this.”

Customers offered money were told: “As a goodwill gesture, we can offer you £5 if you would consider withdrawing your evaluation.”

Some 45 percent of participants withdrew their evaluation in light of the apology, while only 23 percent agreed in return for compensation.

Customers could have been forgiven for deciding that the apologies issued in the study were insincere: they came in an impersonal way from a large, anonymous company that had a clear commercial incentive to say sorry.
But none of that seems to have mattered.

The results prove that apologies are both powerful and cheap, said Dr Johannes Abeler, co∞author of the study.

“You might think that if the apology is costless then customers would ignore it as nothing but cheap talk – which is what it is.

“But this research shows apologies really do influence customers’ behaviour – surprisingly, much more so than a cash sweetener,” he said.

“It might be that saying sorry triggers in the customer an instinct to forgive – an instinct that’s hard to overcome rationally.”

Boxing clever

The green lobby has taught us all to recycle our leftover product packaging, and companies have done their part by increasingly using recyclable materials.

But even greater environmental benefits could be gained if those companies rethought their ideas about the shape and size of the boxes their products come in.
    
That’s according to Renee Wever, a researcher at the TU Delft Faculty of Industrial Design.

Smaller boxes are easier to handle and transport: it’s a seemingly obvious point, but one that tends to get overlooked.
“In thinking about packaging and the environment, most people exclusively consider the amount of material used, and waste material produced,” said Wever.

“This is what people try to reduce. But my research reveals that true gains can be made by concentrating on the transport aspect.”

If companies choose smaller-sized packaging or packages that come in a more easily stackable shape, they can get more products in a container or truck, significantly reducing transport costs and the associated impact on the environment.

Focusing on size will get us further than the usual preoccupation with recycling packaging materials, Wever believes. He wants companies to make environmental assessment an integral part of their packaging design process.

“Marketing considerations sometimes lead to large, flashy boxes,” he said. “People think this will help draw huge attention to their product on the shelves, and distinguish them from the competition, leading to better sales. If you then calculate that maybe as much as one euro per product could be saved in transport costs by choosing a slightly smaller or handier packaging size, now, that attracts some serious attention.”

Wever’s study specifically targets consumer electronics, such as TV sets – he performed part of his fieldwork at Philips, the Dutch electronics giant. But his supplemental research suggests that his conclusions about packaging apply in other areas too, such as consumer goods, including toys and furniture.

“In general, you could say that companies have paid too little attention, or too late, to their packaging,” he said.

“It’s remarkable, given the enormous sums of money involved. There is a real need for specialised packaging designers.

“These experts should understand design and styling as well as the underlying technical packaging and distribution aspects. Such people are now quite few and far between.”

Car crash for car industry?

If anyone ever wanted to buy a new car – be it a small run-around or a luxury sports brand – now is the time to flash the cash, if you have it. While car manufacturing is always going to be inextricably linked to the vagaries of heavy industry, currency fluctuation and recession-hit economies, the current credit crunch has been the most fierce recession (or depression, depending on your viewpoint) to hit the auto industry for decades, so much so that one of the world’s biggest car manufacturers has gone to the wall and succumbed to government bail outs.

On June 1st, car giant General Motors filed for bankruptcy protection, marking the biggest failure of an industrial company in US history.

The move into bankruptcy protection was backed by the US government, which took a 60 percent stake in the company, and the Canadian government, which took a 12.5 percent stake. GM, which had already received $20bn of emergency loans since the end of last year, said in its bankruptcy filing that its debts totalled $173 billion.

Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection gives a US company time to restructure its finances while being protected from its creditors. The restructuring will drastically change GM, with some 20,000 US workers thought likely to lose their jobs as the firm streamlines its operations. GM’s main European business, Opel, and its UK brand Vauxhall, will not be affected by the bankruptcy protection move.

GM, once the largest company in the world, had been losing market share since the early 1980s with analysts saying that it had been driven to bankruptcy because of high production costs and by the collapse in credit markets and consumer spending. GM was also slow to move away from producing gas-guzzling SUVs when consumers were looking for more fuel-efficient vehicles.

When one of the world’s largest car companies fails, others are soon to follow, though none yet on the same scale. In the UK, van manufacturer LDV has applied to go into administration, and American “giants” like Chrysler are looking to merge. Experts say that it will be a long time before the car industry recovers – particularly in the US, where Detroit, the hub of the country’s car industry, is described by auto trade journalists as a “ghost town”.

Yet on the other side of the Atlantic in Europe, manufacturers are so far managing to keep their heads above water, but if sales continue to decline at the same rate as they have been since the start of the year, it is only a matter of time before some start asking for state aid.

Cash down the drain
European car sales in May fell at the slowest rate this year as government∞backed incentives helped reverse declines at leading car manufacturers such as Volkswagen and Fiat. New-car registrations slid 4.9 percent to 1.27 million, a 13th consecutive monthly drop, the Brussels-based European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said. Sales for the first five months fell 14 percent to 5.96 million.

Declines of 39 percent in Spain and 25 percent in the UK led the European sales contraction. However, the slump was tempered by a 40 percent jump in Germany, the region’s largest market, and a 12 percent gain in France.

Experts say that some of the turnaround experienced in Germany, France and Italy is due to state funding and state-backed initiatives. For example, state-funded sales and trade-in subsidies have shifted European demand toward smaller and more fuel-efficient models. Germany is offering a €2,500 rebate for trade-ins of cars older than nine years, Europe’s most-generous offer. The Italian government is offering payments of as much as €5,000 a car, including a €1,500 bonus on trade-ins of autos at least 10 years old plus incentives for buying low-emission vehicles.

British dealers are hoping for a sales boost from the UK’s scrappage scheme launched in May offering £2,000 incentives to people who trade in a car more than 10 years old. UK government figures show that more than 60,000 orders for cars under the UK’s scrappage subsidy scheme had been placed since the initiative was announced. Under the scheme, car buyers are given a £2,000 discount on a new car if they scrap one that is at least 10 years old. It will run until March 2010 and to benefit from it, a buyer must have been the registered keeper, for at least 12 months, of the car that is due to be scrapped. Half the scheme’s cash is being paid for by the government, with manufacturers contributing the rest. The government has set aside £300m to pay for the scheme, which could benefit up to 300,000 customers.

The UK car industry is hopeful that it will work, as it has done so for some German and Italian brands. For example, since similar schemes were launched in Germany and Italy, global sales by Volkswagen, one of Europe’s biggest carmakers, rose for the first time in eight months in May, the company said on June 12th. Volkswagen sales in Europe rose 3.1 percent to 278,933 cars, with the namesake brand delivering 9.2 percent more vehicles and the Seat division increasing by 3.4 percent. Fiat, based in Turin, Italy, sold 116,243 cars in Europe, an increase of two percent, with demand climbing 2.8 percent at the Fiat brand and 1.4 percent at Lancia.

But the majority of European car manufacturers are not enjoying such good fortunes. PSA Peugeot Citroen, Europe’s second-largest carmaker, said sales fell 5.9 percent to 165,167 vehicles. Ford Motor Co’s deliveries shrank by five percent to 125,395, led by a 20 percent drop at its Volvo brand. General Motors Corp’s group sales dropped 11 percent to 118,602 cars. European deliveries by Munich-based Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s biggest maker of luxury models, fell 14 percent to 65,490 while second-ranked Daimler AG in Stuttgart posted an 8.9 percent drop to 61,714 vehicles.

Porsche has seen its nine-month unit sales slump by more than a quarter after demand for its cars was hit by the worldwide recession. Global sales at the German carmaker declined 28 percent to 53,635 vehicles between August 2008 and the end of
April, compared with a year earlier.

On a financial basis, its sales fell 15 percent to ¤4.6bn, though the figures do not include those of Volkswagen, in which Porsche increased its stake to 51 percent in January and has indicated that it wants to increase further.

On a model-by-model basis, Porsche’s nine-month decline in sales was most pronounced for its Boxster and Cayman models, which fell a combined 47 percent. Sales of its core 911 model shed 18 percent, while those of its Cayenne four-wheel drive vehicle were down 25 percent. Porsche said it had experienced falling demand across the world, but that the decline was most extensive in the US and Canada. “In the first nine months of the ongoing fiscal year, the Porsche subgroup could not avoid the downward trend that has overtaken the worldwide automobile industry,” said Porsche. Separately, Porsche is also continuing talks with the Qatar over a possible investment by the Qatar Investment Authority, the country’s state run sovereign wealth fund, in the firm. Reports have suggested that the Qatar government wishes to buy a 25 percent stake in the car manufacturer.

Plants drying up
US car giant Ford – if giant can be used to describe any auto manufacturer these days – has also had a bad time of it so far this year. It has announced that it is moving its headquarters in Asia, and that it has posted a record loss in 2008 in Australia of $274.4 million – triple the loss of the preceding year. In Europe the company has had to accept state aid to keep it operational in some markets. To give the company some breathing space and to protect thousands of Spanish workers’ jobs, on June 18th the European Commission gave its approval to ¤51.9m of Spanish state aid for US auto maker Ford to restructure its Almussafes, Valencia plant. “The Commission takes the view that the project, involving eligible investments of some €490m by Ford, will significantly contribute to the development of the region’s economy without unduly distorting competition,” it said. “The investment guarantees the continuity of activity at the Almussafes plant and will maintain some 5,000 direct jobs at the plant,” it added.

The motor industry in the UK – which has been creaking under continued international competition for decades – is also in a far from healthy shape. Commercial vehicle production fell 73.5 percent and the number of new cars made fell 43 percent in May from the same month a year earlier, according to the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). In the first five months of 2009, car production was down 54 percent at 319,022 compared with the same period last year.

In order to stay competitive, in business, and afloat, several firms this year have temporarily shut factories or cut back production to run down existing supplies after the downturn hit demand for new vehicles. Workers at Honda’s UK production plant returned to work at the beginning of June after a four-month layoff and a pay cut. The company had suspended production from February through May because of slow sales. Workers have voted to cut their pay by three percent for the next 10 months, and managers have taken a five percent cut as part of the deal. The work force at Honda’s plant in Swindon, in southern England, has been reduced to 3,400 after some 1,300 workers accepted the company’s offer of voluntary severances. Honda’s production target in the UK this year is 113,000 cars, barely more than half of its previous goal of 228,000 vehicles.

“Prompt action by manufacturers to realign supply with demand has been painful, but was necessary. There is now a direct link between demand in the marketplace and production volumes,” said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive. He added that “low business confidence” continued to blight demand for commercial vehicles – mainly vans and lorries. “Businesses across the economy are still holding back on new expenditure and will need to see better access to finance and stronger domestic demand.”

French revolution
Yet while the majority of car manufacturers have suffered their worst sales figures for a decade, few have suffered the indignity of having their investment rating fall to near “junk” levels like Renault. In mid-June Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service lowered its credit ratings on the French carmaker by two notches into junk territory on expectations weak European auto demand this year will continue next year. The two-notch downgrade to BB – two steps below investment grade – comes three months after S&P put the ratings at the brink of junk.

Renault has been cutting costs and aiming to strengthen its alliance with Japanese car firm Nissan to weather the global downturn. However, S&P said further downgrades or a change in outlook would be possible if Renault burns through a “significant amount” of cash this year or its debt grows. S&P said it views an upgrade or positive outlook revision as highly unlikely in the current environment.

S&P credit analyst Barbara Castellano said the downgrade reflects the rating firm’s expectations for very low demand next year and concerns about government incentive programmes this year to support the sector. S&P said in April that while European government programmes to revive demand in the ailing auto industry could provide some companies with short-term liquidity, that they could impede the industry’s long-term growth. At the time the credit rating firm said the government funds failed to address the industry’s structural problems such as overcapacity and a fixed-cost structure.

S&P said Renault had been hurt by a “large increase in debt in 2008,” leaving its credit quality weak, and that it expects its credit profile will worsen amid diminished demand forecasts for next year. The French government’s 15 percent ownership in the company, while contributing to the stable outlook, does not provide “any notches of enhancement” to Renault’s ratings, S&P said.

China warming up
But not every car producing market is suffering, it seems. Asia’s car sector – so far – seems to be performing much more steadily. Against a backdrop of slump car markets worldwide from January to May this year, the automotive market in China is the first to warm up and car sales have grown for five months in a row, overtaking the US as the world’s best-selling car market. If such sales continue, China’s auto sales will breach the 10 million target.

China has so far thrown in billions of yuan through stimulus measures, including car purchase tax cuts, subsidies for rural buyers and a programme of old-for-new car subsidies. The country’s car market has entered into a new, high-speed growth period, which has already seen a number of manufacturers raising their production quota.

Gas-guzzlers
Furthermore, some Chinese car manufacturing firms are on the hunt to pick up some of the assets that other firms are having to sell off to stay afloat. China’s Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery has agreed to buy Gerneral Motor’s Hummer brand for an undisclosed amount.

The disposal is part of GM’s plan to reinvent itself by concentrating on fewer brands following its bankruptcy filing. GM says it hopes the deal will save about 3,000 jobs in the US, where Hummer will remain based.

Tengzhong specialises in making equipment for the road, construction and energy industries. It is based in China’s Sichuan province. Hummers were originally built as military off-road vehicles by a company called AM General. GM bought
the Hummer brand in 1999. Its sales have suffered as the gas-guzzling performance and military image have become less popular.

When it began the sale process a year ago, GM had hoped to make more than $500m but analysts say that it is likely to have made about $100 million from the sale.

Elsewhere, Toyota’s gas-electric hybrid, Prius has surpassed the company’s expectations to achieve a record booking of 180,000 vehicles within a month of its launch on May 18th in the Japanese market. The record sales exceeded the company’s target of 10,000 units per month. The sale includes the 80,000 units booked during the pre-launch of the new Prius 2010.

Toyota’s Prius overtook its rival, Honda’s Insight, to make it to the top position as the top selling vehicle. Hybrid vehicles have been taking the top spot in auto sales mainly due to the government incentives given to the auto industry in the wake of the plummeting car sales on account of the global financial crisis, a strengthening yen and the US credit crunch. In May, the government approved a cash-back rebate for trading in cars above 13 years for greener cars, giving consumers an added incentive to buy green cars.

Significant saving
Thanks to the incentive, hybrids are now tax-free in Japan and a Prius buyer saves about $1,500 which has added to the demand for the vehicle.

The other main advantage with hybrids cars is the savings on petrol, especially for city driving where the constant stop-and-go traffic lowers the fuel efficiency of petrol-engines.

Sales of hybrid cars, which are powered by gasoline and electricity, have peaked for the second straight month in Japan in the midst of recession indicating the increasing demand for green cars. In May, Toyota decided to increase the production of its new Prius by around 20 percent from around 42,000 to about 50,000 units per month, requiring enhanced production timings for which the Japanese car maker introduced overtime at its two factories at Kariya and Toyota where the car is manufactured. Toyota also raised its full year production target for the new hybrid from 300,000 to 450,000-500,000 units in Japan for 2009 while its US target is 180,000 units for the full year.

Whether the emergence of the hybrid car as a “true alternative” really captures the hearts of the public remains to be seen. But what is evident – and was to every firm except GM – is that the “gas guzzler” is going the way of the dinosaur, and those manufacturers that fail to adapt and adopt green technologies into their car designs are unlikely to last much longer.

Tipping point

Bashkoi marks the closest point at which the BP-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline – one of several criss-crossing the region – skirts the Russian-backed territory, underscoring the risks to investors with stakes in Georgia as an energy corridor to the West.

Last August’s five-day war over South Ossetia rattled nerves over the flow of oil and gas. Analysts cite current plans to expand BTC as evidence the worst fears were misplaced. But a year on, with the sides facing off over tense boundaries and no sign of a peace process, the risk of renewed hostilities remains high.

That threat could impact future projects, notably the US- and European Union-backed Nabucco gas pipeline plan, a 3,300 km transit route to bring gas to Europe from the Caspian and Middle East by 2014 .

Villagers in Bashkoi, a bumpy 110-km drive (68 miles) west of the Georgian capital, recall seeing jets and Russian Mi-24 helicopter gunships during the war, and people fleeing the fighting. “We still think about the possibility of another war with Russia,” said 45-year-old school librarian Ketino Devdariani. “Do you think war will start?” she asked a visiting reporter.

Devdariani said she hoped Nabucco would be built nearby, providing a much-needed boost to the impoverished rural area, where some homes stand abandoned by villagers who left looking for work elsewhere. Nabucco’s rationale is to reduce Europe’s energy dependence on Russia, but it has long been beset by problems over supply and financing.

A July 13th breakthrough transit deal between EU countries and Turkey “indicates confidence in Georgia as a transport corridor,” said Kate Hardin, head of Russian and Caspian Research at US-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

A new war, however, would renew doubts about the viability of Nabucco, which has yet to secure gas supplies from Azerbaijan. Instability in Georgia has already played into Azeri thinking about where to sell its gas, with Baku now looking to Russia as an attractive alternative. “We still have no map for the pipeline and as a result there is no discussion yet about Georgia being a transit nation,” said Ana Jelenkovic, research associate at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

“If Azeri supplies are secured by the Nabucco consortium and pipeline construction discussions begin in earnest, then Georgia would be discussed as a potential transit nation,” Jelenkovic told Reuters. “I think at that point you might have that issue (instability in Georgia) raised.”

Georgia hosts major pipelines feeding oil and gas to Europe from the Caspian Sea, including BTC and gas counterpart Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum. It also has three major Black Sea ports – Batumi, Poti and Supsa – handling oil products and crude.
The war shattered progress made since Georgia’s 2003 “Rose Revolution” to attract investment to the former Soviet republic under pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili. Russia crushed a Georgian assault on South Ossetia, which like the rebel Black Sea region of Abkhazia threw off Tbilisi’s rule in the early 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Poti was briefly held by Russian troops, and thousands of Russian soldiers remain in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, some 50km from Tbilisi at their nearest point.

BTC was closed for two weeks at the time of last year’s war due to an unrelated explosion in Turkey, and it was not damaged in the conflict. But bombs did fall within 15 metres (50 feet) of the Baku-Supsa pipeline, which BP was then in the process of reopening, two years after it had been closed for maintenance.

Russian troops seized the main East-West highway, and explosions hit the key railway also used to export Azeri oil. But the immediate impact of the war  “was more like a hiccup in terms of  export disruptions – oil and gas exports were interrupted/redirected only briefly, and the long-term impact on transportation has been less than it could have been,” Hardin said in an e-mailed response to questions.

Azerbaijan re-routed some oil through Russia. Then in July, it agreed to sell Russia a modest 500 million cubic metres of gas beginning in 2010. Russian state-run gas giant Gazprom said it had secured priority in buying gas from the second phase of Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz deposit – Europe’s main hope for supplying Nabucco.
 
Analysts say Azerbaijan, faced with an unstable Georgia and trying to balance political interests between East and West, wants to diversify export options.  Underscoring the interplay between energy interests and territorial disputes in the Caucasus, Baku is also looking for Moscow’s backing in its dispute with Russian ally Armenia over the Armenian-backed rebel region of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Assessing the risk of a cataclysm

Professor Zari Rachev scorns the idea that market cataclysms cannot be forecast. He says his statistical models have predicted them, and his customers agree.

His daughter is now president of New York-based company FinAnalytica, which uses his models to provide investors and risk managers with a risk indicator that takes into account the worst-case scenarios.

“This past year was very important for us, because it validated everything that we worked for,” said Boryana Racheva-Iotova by telephone from Bulgaria.

Her firm’s risk measure, fat-tailed expected tail loss or ETL, gave investors advance notice of a sharp fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average among other markets: the Dow fell from a life high in November 2007 to a 12-year low in March 2009, sliding sharpest after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008.

Fat-tailed ETL builds on the statistical phenomenon popularised by former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s focus on the massively unexpected.

Think of a bell curve on a statistician’s chart that reflects “normal distribution.” It is tall and wide in the middle – where most events fall – and drops and flattens out at the edges, where fewer things happen, making a shape on a graph like a bell. When the edges or tails swell, instead of nearly vanishing, they are called “heavy” or “fat.”

Streams of financial commentators have over the past year revelled in a desire to present the crash as coming out of the blue to math whizzes paid a fortune to study the statistical stars and presage such events.

But Rachev is one of those who say they saw it coming – because his models took the worst possible events into account.

Departing from VaR
In the case of the Dow Jones index, his fat-tailed expected tail loss – a measure of the potential daily average loss in the worst one percent of scenarios – gave investors notice of rising risk.

Boston-based Henderson Capital Management, which does not disclose its funds under management, said it used FinAnalytica models to help identify investment funds with significant downside risk through 2008.

“Some of these managers subsequently suffered large losses,” Managing Partner Mark Pearl said in a statement for Reuters. One is now closing down, he added, declining to name it.

With the Dow Jones in the three years to late 2006, the fat-tailed ETL was below two percent, but it started to rise in 2007 to four percent in March, then eight percent in April 2008 and 10 percent in mid-September 2008.

By contrast, a typical Wall Street indicator that takes into account all cases but the worst one percent – known as value at risk (VaR) 99 – was signalling potential daily losses of no more than two percent until April 2008 and five percent in late∞September.

Racheva-Iotova highlights the gap between the two indicators from late 2006 to mid-September 2008.

“Now consider a market that understands the extreme risk for a key market driver such as the Dow Jones is in fact 40 percent higher for a period of more than a year and a half,” she said, implying investors would have been much more cautious.

London-based Aviva Investors, with £236.5bn of assets under management as of end-2008, started using the model two years ago. “Particularly during the recent market crisis, this approach has delivered value by helping us to proactively manage tail risk and mitigate the potential for extreme loss in crisis conditions,” said Julie Griffiths, its head of portfolio risk.

Today, the fat-tailed ETL figure is at about the same level as it was in May 2008, and it and VaR 99 have come closer together, indicating reduced risk of another imminent crash.

“The fact that the two methods converge may indicate that the markets are calming down,” Racheva-Iotova said.

Scepticism
Of course, any statistical model of financial markets faces scepticism. Mathematical sophistication, as experts said in a March review for British regulators, “ended up not containing risk but providing false assurance that other prime facie indicators of increasing risk could be safely ignored”.

Drawing a distinction between risk and uncertainty, which arises from shifts in society and natural resources, the review commissioned by Financial Services Authority head Adair Turner questioned our ability to infer future risk from past patterns.

At a very basic level is the relevance of data from 1929 for the internet age, when currencies are no longer tied to gold.

Paul Wilmott, who founded Oxford University’s diploma in mathematical finance and is a well∞known critic of Wall Street models, said that while it is possible to forecast a market crash, “it’s difficult, statistically speaking, to decide whether you are lucky or not. These things happen very rarely.”

He himself warned in 2000 of the risk of a mathematician∞led market meltdown, and in 2006 of the dangers of credit derivatives – blamed in part for skewing measures of risk in the run∞up to 2008. “But I could have just been lucky”.

Magnifying glass
However powerful such scepticism, it is not stopping quantitative analysts from creating new models to replace VaR, which has become widely discredited.

The flaws of VaR are well known, said Rohan Douglas, chief executive of Quantifi Inc., which supplies models to analyse and price debt instruments and does not compete with FinAnalytica.

“Nobody using VaR thought it was perfect, but it was a clear, simple way of communicating risk that everybody understood,” he said, adding that now a few people are coming up with alternative risk measures, and the question is whether any will be adopted as an industry standard.

Henderson said it had picked FinAnalytica after a comprehensive search. Rachev, a professor at the University of Karlsruhe and University of California at Santa Barbara, says simply that his models provide “a better magnifying glass.

“You see some indications the market is starting to behave in a more volatile way before you see the largest negative shock.”

Rachev first turned to the problem of calculating the probabilities of extreme events after the 1987 market crash.
 
No model then could explain the crash, the probability of which “was computed at slightly more than the life of the universe”, he said. The FinAnalytica model now predicts a crash of that size can occur every 30 years on average.

The Bulgarian-born mathematician has tackled the problem from four different directions, including theories on fractals and clustering of volatility, and produced his models by 2002.

Racheva-Iotova said investors will still need to exercise judgment: “Even with the best output, the model must be used properly in the decision-making process.”

And the model needs data that give as full a risk picture as possible: “The problem of data∞entry implementation should not be underestimated.”

Where would you put the chance of market cataclysm being sparked by human error in data entry? The tail thickens.

The lure of the ring

For Harald Blumauer, 66, a retired executive of Volvo trucks from Vienna, Austria, and tens of thousands of people around the world just like him, it’s no contest: they choose Brunnhilde.

“It’s always a new adventure,” said Blumauer, who had seen 10 versions of German romantic composer Richard Wagner’s 15-hour, four-opera cycle, plus countless performances of individual operas, before taking in another new cycle in a Budapest production.

“You found a real expert in Wagner here,” his wife Christa said helpfully, explaining her husband’s passion during intermission in the Hungarian capital’s Bela Bartok Concert Hall, alongside the Danube, sun blazing outside.

“He goes to the opera often, sometimes for just one act.”

Why would people trek the globe, like Wagner’s wandering god character Wotan, in search of the perfect “Ring”?

Maybe it’s similar to what drives “Da Vinci Code” tourists to poke around churches and museums in the footsteps of novelist Dan Brown’s fictional symbologist Robert Langdon. Or perhaps it’s like those Grateful Dead fans who, lore has it, attended every concert the San Francisco rock band ever gave.

For conductor Adam Fischer, 59, the guiding force behind Budapest’s “Ring”, it’s just great theatre and music and so when you mount a new “Ring”, audiences will come, from far and wide.

“If it’s boring, blame us”
“This is very exciting and very intense music and if it is boring – because you think 15 hours are boring – then it’s our fault,” he told Reuters in an interview.

Fischer has conducted the cycle three times in Bayreuth, Germany, the holy temple of Wagner which the composer purpose-built to stage his operas, so he gets Bayreuth singers to work in a production that takes a very distinct approach.

“There’s an expression in German, ‘spar flamme’ or ‘spare flame’,” Fischer said. “We don’t do ‘spar flamme’ here.”

Music takes centre stage in this staging, now in its second year, in a new hall with a “live” acoustic where every word and note comes through crystal clear, and often thunderously loud.

Although it is more than a century old, Fischer sees the “Ring” as a fable for our times:

“It’s about too much borrowed money, it’s the same story,” he said referring to the plot – such as it is – in which the downfall of the gods is assured when they get giants to build a new palace that chief god Wotan pays for with stolen Rhine gold.

“There’s a Hungarian expression which means ‘to build a house that even gods can’t afford’,” Fischer said. “That happens, and that is what everybody has in this country, and every second or third house in America.”

Hungary has been hit hard by the financial meltdown and its economy is expected to shrink by almost seven percent this year.

Although he is Jewish, Fischer is not too troubled by Wagner’s well documented anti-Semitism. Fischer notes that some of Wagner’s foremost champions today are Jewish conductors.

“So it’s a Jewish music,” he said with a laugh.

Dancers, puppets and video
The Austrian stage director, Hartmut Schorghofer, 45, re-interprets the work for a concert hall with a much smaller and less versatile stage than an opera house, making extensive use of video imagery and other modern effects.

“To make this total theatre we have singers, we have dancers, we have puppets, we have video – we have all this on stage, but in a really concentrated space,” he said.

It is meant to appeal to a generation at ease with video screens and possibly familiar with the puppetry in “The Lion King”, but it gives pride of place to the music and singing.

“What we do is ‘kammerspiel’, it is like a chamber work,” Schorghofer said. “You are really near the singers and they are as if naked on stage because they have no place to hide.”

Does it work for the opera’s real “gods” – the audience?
 
For Sophia Zubor, 17, from the western Hungarian city of Szombathely, attending with secondary school classmates who would seem to be in the target age group, it didn’t.

“The staging was strange, a bit too modern,” she said. “The music is quite good but I would have preferred a simpler thing, with traditional costumes.”

And what of the older generation, who might be put off by the video imagery and puppetry?

“It’s the first time I’ve seen it and it’s an absolute beauty, the music elevates the spirit,” said Balint Denes, 74, who fled Hungary after its failed 1956 revolution against Soviet rule and settled in Tucson, Arizona, where he worked for Bank of America until his retirement.

“This was the experience of a lifetime.”