Oil prices may fall further, says IEA

Low prices may last until 2016 after OPEC maintains high production levels

Executive Director of the IEA, Maria van der Hoeven at the OPEC's sixth international seminar in Vienna, earlier this year

Hopes that the bottom had been hit in the last 12 months of plunging oil prices may be misguided, says the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the global energy regulator, prices may stay low well into 2016, when supply starts to tighten in the market.

The news comes after a year where members of OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, have maintained high levels of production, despite the falling price of crude. This has been done to hold onto their global market share in the face of a growing US shale industry and challenges from countries like Russia. Prices are currently around 45 percent lower than they were this time last year, but with considerable supply in the market, further falls are expected.

The cost of solar power has dramatically fallen in recent years

The IEA says that production has halted in non-OPEC markets because low costs have made it financially unviable. However, with OPEC still churning out crude at high rates, the bottom of the market will not likely come in the next six months. “The bottom of the market may still be ahead. Non-OPEC supply growth is expected to grind to a halt in 2016, as lower oil prices and spending cuts take a toll.”

While the oil industry undergoes difficulties because of geopolitical events – not least in Russia, Syria and Iraq – it is also under threat from a resurgent renewable energy sector. After years of struggling to transform potential into actual results, renewables, led by the solar industry, are finally beginning to offer a serious alternative to fossil fuels.

The cost of solar power has dramatically fallen in recent years. Compared to 2009, solar photovoltaics are 75 percent cheaper to produce. During the same time, the cost of producing solar energy has halved. The potential for the industry has even be seen by traditional oil producing nations like Saudi Arabia, which has started to invest heavily in solar power production. In May, the country’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, is reported to have told a conference that he expected solar power to surpass oil within the next 25 years.

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