Dutch looking away from Europe
The collapse of the Dutch government over troop deployments in Afghanistan will distance the country from its EU neighbours, reduce its involvement on the world stage and could prompt a shift to the right at home23/02/2010
Despite a long internationalist tradition rooted in centuries of sea trade, the European country of 16 million has turned inwards in recent years as the economy has stagnated and political and social tensions have risen. A reduced Dutch presence in European affairs and Afghanistan could make it difficult for the continent to unite around a bailout for Greece, and could also affect troop deployments by other Western states nearing the end of their mandates.
"The Netherlands will be more sceptical about European integration," said Philip van Praag, political science professor at Amsterdam University.
After months of simmering discord over how to tackle the financial crisis, a NATO request for the Dutch to extend their deployment of nearly 2,000 troops triggered the split of the fragile left-right coalition recently.
Local elections will offer an early glimpse into how the break between Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's centre-right Christian Democrats and his deputy Wouter Bos's Labour Party will play out with voters.
Any new government, which would be installed after expected mid-year parliamentary elections, will also have to submit a budget by September that can reign in spending, even as voter discontent rises over proposals such as raising the retirement age and income taxes.
"We are in the middle of a financial crisis and holding elections now would lead to a lot of insecurity for the public and investors," said Andre Krouwel, professor of political science at Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam.
Ripple effects?
The Dutch troops, deployed in Uruzgan province since 2006, are almost certain to be brought home this year, at a time when the US is stepping up its offensive against the Taliban and urging other Western nations to do the same.
The Netherlands is among the top 10 contributing nations to the NATO mission. Twenty-one Dutch soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing forward with plans to increase troops in Afghanistan, despite strong opposition to the Afghan conflict at home. Polls show that the Afghan war is also deeply unpopular in Britain.
The Dutch withdrawal will hurt Europe's image as a partner in foreign and security issues, said Edwin Bakker, a senior research fellow at the Clingendael Institute.
The roots of Dutch unease over sending troops to Afghanistan lie in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre when lightly-armed Dutch UN soldiers, lacking international air support, were forced to abandon the enclave to Bosnian Serb forces who then killed up to 8,000 Muslims who had sought protection from the Dutch.
A damning 2002 report on Srebrenica triggered the government's collapse and ushered in Balkenende's first administration. Dutch politics - once known for its stability and consensus - has been unpredictable ever since.
That has coincided with a gradual slide towards isolationism. Dutch voters rejected a draft constitution for Europe four years ago.
Many are also concerned about Muslim immigration, the growing influence of Brussels over Dutch laws and Dutch taxpayers' contributions to the EU budget.
A poll shows that 55 percent of the Dutch want highly-indebted countries to be kicked out of the EU. Another poll also showed strong support for Greece to leave the euro.
The Netherlands was one of the six founding members of the EU that signed the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, leading to the creation of the euro currency.
Swing to the right?
Geert Wilders and his anti-immigration Freedom Party are likely to be the main beneficiaries of Saturday's government collapse and gain a more influential voice in policy.
During European Parliament elections in June 2009, the Freedom Party won enough votes to be the second-biggest Dutch party represented in Brussels after the Christian Democrats.
Opinion polls tip the party to become the largest or second biggest party in parliament by siphoning votes from Labour.
The political heir to populist anti-immigrant politician Pim Fortuyn, who was murdered in 2002, the bleach-blonde Wilders has challenged the country's traditional tolerance of immigration and has called for lower taxes, a ban on immigrants from Muslim countries and the influence of the EU to be reduced.
"People want a new fresh party with good new views, tough on crime, tough on mass immigration and this is really what people look forward to," Wilders told reporters. "I believe indeed we can have excellent results in the next few months and it can only change the Netherlands for the better."
Few expect Wilders to join a coalition, but a big victory would put him in prime position to support a minority government - most likely the Christian Democrats - and drive his agenda.
"Wilders will be an outsider. He's very clever and knows he'll lose a lot of votes if he joins a coalition," said Van Praag. "He has much more freedom from the outside."
